Novel Probabilistic Approach for Quantification of Cost-Overruns Risk and Determination of Primary Causes
Table 4
Hypothetical data and results.
Item
Case 1
Case 2
Case 3
Case 4
Time and cost
Days
40
80
120
160
Current cost
4
25
50
150
Progress of each task
Section A B2
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
Section A B1
0.15
0.76
1.0
1.0
Section B B2
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
Section B B1
0.15
0.49
1.0
1.0
Section C B2
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
Section C B1
0.09
0.32
1.0
1.0
Section D B2
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
Section D B1
0.1
0.59
1.0
1.0
Section A F1
0
0
1.0
1.0
Section A F2
0
0
1.0
1.0
Section A F3
0
0
1.0
1.0
Section A F4
0
0
0
1.0
Section A F5
0
0
0
0
Section A F6
0
0
0
0
Section A F7
0
0
0
0
Section A F8
0
0
0
0
Section A F9
0
0
0
0
Section B F1
0
0
1.0
1.0
Section B F2
0
0
1.0
1.0
Section B F3
0
0
0.5
1.0
Section B F4
0
0
0
0.72
Section B F5
0
0
0
0
Section B F6
0
0
0
0
Section C F1
0
0
1.0
1.0
Section C F2
0
0
1.0
1.0
Section C F3
0
0
0.31
1.0
Section C F4
0
0
0
0.49
Results
Overruns deviation reasoning
False (12.63%)
False (21.09%)
False (2.29%)
True (39.98%)
False (26.82%)
True (99.99%)
True (83.86%)
False (21.83%)
—
Quantity (99.99%)
Progress (24.02%)
—
Next, to investigate the influence of δ in the algorithm, we adjust δ and conduct experiments based on Case 3. The parameters and corresponding results are shown in Table 5.
