Novel Probabilistic Approach for Quantification of Cost-Overruns Risk and Determination of Primary Causes

Table 5

Results of different δ on Case 3.

Parameters	Overruns (%)	Deviation (%)	(%)	Reasoning
Case 3.1: α = 0.32, β = 0.32, δ = 0.5	2.29	83.86	24.02	Progress
Case 3.2: α = 0.32, β = 0.32, δ = 0.2	2.29	96.49	75.36	Quantity
Case 3.3: α = 0.32, β = 0.32, δ = 0.8	2.29	10.31	—	—

refers to the deviation probability without progress exceptions.