Quantitative Analysis and Prediction of Global Terrorist Attacks Based on Machine Learning

Table 4

Comparison of 5 algorithms for predicting terrorist groups with different attack frequencies.

Summary of data records	Number of terrorist attacks (range)	≥1000	≥500	≥100	≥50	≥5
	Number of terrorist organizations	19	32	122	210	936
	Total number of terrorist attacks	50200	58520	78107	84339	94871
Accuracy	Decision trees	0.982669	0.958647	0.878377	0.854636	0.796164
	Bagging	0.960757	0.931989	0.833312	0.799858	0.740620
	Random forests	0.983068	0.968216	0.904494	0.881195	0.835687
	ExtraTrees	0.979283	0.959501	0.886698	0.860327	0.803225
	XGBoost	0.983466	0.971634	0.853924	0.791439	0.698567
Precision	Decision trees	0.976950	0.928242	0.787521	0.745648	0.478754
	Bagging	0.945956	0.932152	0.771253	0.685609	0.347113
	Random forests	0.979232	0.957727	0.847559	0.817384	0.520747
	ExtraTrees	0.973327	0.942159	0.811242	0.761273	0.476816
	XGBoost	0.978406	0.957246	0.752235	0.523490	0.126893
Recall	Decision trees	0.976073	0.929554	0.786034	0.737920	0.512161
	Bagging	0.940090	0.858106	0.605144	0.523339	0.304769
	Random forests	0.974743	0.934140	0.785265	0.739619	0.511993
	ExtraTrees	0.970025	0.926234	0.761510	0.708550	0.469377
	XGBoost	0.976059	0.944904	0.746525	0.537858	0.138689
F1 score	Decision trees	0.976497	0.928603	0.784185	0.736470	0.481310
	Bagging	0.941057	0.875151	0.633059	0.551191	0.305712
	Random forests	0.976587	0.942883	0.805488	0.754597	0.502975
	ExtraTrees	0.971609	0.932798	0.779096	0.723834	0.459432
	XGBoost	0.977118	0.950011	0.745925	0.523800	0.130349