A Generic Risk Assessment Model for Animal Disease Entry through Wildlife: The Example of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza and African Swine Fever in The Netherlands

<div>Model structure. An example of a hypothetical outbreak in March in Germany. From the hypothetical outbreak (1), the direction (2) and the shortest distance to the border (3) of the Netherlands were calculated. In this case, the direction was west and the distance was 325 km. Then, the behaviour was sampled based on the March probability distribution. From the sampled behaviour, distance and direction were sampled. Only when subsequently a westward direction and an effective travel distance larger than 325 km are drawn, the outbreak is considered to have reached the Netherlands.</div>

Transboundary and Emerging Diseases

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Figure 1: A Generic Risk Assessment Model for Animal Disease Entry through Wildlife: The Example of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza and African Swine Fever in The Netherlands 

Figure 1 | A Generic Risk Assessment Model for Animal Disease Entry through Wildlife: The Example of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza and African Swine Fever in The Netherlands 