A Generic Risk Assessment Model for Animal Disease Entry through Wildlife: The Example of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza and African Swine Fever in The Netherlands

Figure 2

Behavioural parameterization for highly pathogenic avian influenza (a), (b), (c), (d), and African swine fever (e), (f), (g), (h). (a) + (e). Relative probability between each behaviour group by month (B_abundance) (the probability for b3 for African swine fever is 0.001, and thus not visible in this panel). (b) + (f). Effective distance (distance) travelled by the infection (a combination of animal movement distance and persistence of transmission chains). (c) + (g). Probability that an animal or infection “moves” from the outbreak location towards the Netherlands using this cardinal direction (direction). The top slice (orange) corresponds with the direction “North”; colours provide distinction between the directions. (d) + (g). Temporal abundance within behaviour groups (T_abundance). Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI); swine fever (ASF); behaviour group (b).

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