A Generic Risk Assessment Model for Animal Disease Entry through Wildlife: The Example of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza and African Swine Fever in The Netherlands

<div>Modelled and observed outbreak risk (<span class="nowrap"><svg height="12.5273pt" id="M8" style="vertical-align:-3.29115pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -9.23615 52.0737 12.5273" width="52.0737pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M610 18C585 26 567 34 540 68C517 97 499 128 476 171C452 215 425 276 413 304C496 332 570 394 570 494C570 555 545 595 509 619S419 650 364 650H139L133 622C216 615 219 612 203 527L129 132C112 40 105 36 23 28L17 0H279L285 28C199 34 194 40 211 132L239 284H284C320 284 334 275 351 236C374 182 394 140 420 93C459 23 495 -1 592 -8H600L610 18ZM480 485C480 424 449 372 403 342C374 323 338 316 293 316H245L291 562C296 589 301 601 311 608S337 618 358 618C432 618 480 575 480 485Z"></path></g><rect height="0.3985" width="3.91466" x="8.93413" y="-0.3985"></rect><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,12.849,0)"><path d="M257 449C165 449 37 374 37 209C37 98 119 -12 256 -12C355 -12 473 65 473 226C473 349 381 449 257 449ZM244 416C333 416 380 320 380 204C380 67 329 21 267 21C184 21 130 115 130 241C130 354 184 416 244 416Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,19.27,0)"><path d="M478 437H300V411C357 404 363 393 347 345C325 280 293 190 258 107C229 178 188 284 163 354C147 397 149 405 203 411V437H-2V411C52 403 59 396 82 339C130 222 176 109 220 -11H248C304 138 356 261 390 336C417 395 425 404 478 411V437Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,25.38,0)"><path d="M380 106C343 72 306 56 265 56C195 56 116 112 115 248C235 252 361 262 377 265C396 269 400 277 400 297C400 374 333 449 250 449H249C198 449 144 421 103 376S37 269 37 201C37 88 109 -12 232 -12C263 -12 332 6 395 84L380 106ZM225 412C281 412 315 364 314 312C314 297 308 292 290 292C232 290 176 289 120 289C135 370 180 412 225 412Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,30.905,0)"><path d="M181 342V451C133 431 89 419 40 411V388C98 381 102 377 102 311V104C102 38 95 32 33 26V0H263V26C186 32 181 38 181 104V287C203 343 235 372 261 372C277 372 289 366 304 352C310 346 318 345 330 350C349 359 362 379 362 399C362 422 338 449 304 449C256 449 213 393 183 342H181Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,35.728,0)"><path d="M433 39L423 65C413 59 399 54 387 54C370 54 352 69 352 114V299C352 352 342 392 307 422C285 440 255 449 225 449C168 437 102 399 75 379C56 365 44 353 44 339C44 315 69 296 87 296C101 296 111 303 116 319C124 349 133 371 145 385C156 397 171 404 190 404C241 404 275 364 275 291V274C253 256 180 229 120 209C65 190 39 159 39 110C39 47 88 -12 159 -12C189 -12 237 25 277 52C282 35 288 21 301 8C312 -3 333 -12 348 -12L433 39ZM275 84C256 65 221 48 195 48C164 48 124 73 124 124C124 161 146 180 185 198C206 208 254 229 275 240V84Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,41.501,0)"><path d="M238 0V26C174 32 166 38 166 104V712C132 700 70 683 18 677V653C81 647 87 645 87 577V104C87 38 78 32 15 26V0H238Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,44.855,0)"><path d="M238 0V26C174 32 166 38 166 104V712C132 700 70 683 18 677V653C81 647 87 645 87 577V104C87 38 78 32 15 26V0H238Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,48.306,3.132)"><path d="M329 433H203L239 587L230 596L147 534L123 433H57L30 395L34 388H115L61 129C37 16 59 -12 85 -12C147 -12 222 58 260 98L241 125C212 95 160 62 144 62C132 62 127 71 138 126L192 386L305 394L329 433Z"></path></g></svg>)</span> for highly pathogenic avian influenza between 2014–2021. The observed outbreaks are the (wild and domestic) number of outbreaks (<i>n</i>) that were reported in the Netherlands during that time period, by year (a) and by month (b).</div>

Transboundary and Emerging Diseases

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Figure 4: A Generic Risk Assessment Model for Animal Disease Entry through Wildlife: The Example of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza and African Swine Fever in The Netherlands 

Figure 4 | A Generic Risk Assessment Model for Animal Disease Entry through Wildlife: The Example of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza and African Swine Fever in The Netherlands 