Estimating the Importation Risk of Mpox Virus in 2022 to Hong Kong, China

Figure 1

Estimated risk of mpox introductions from international regions to HK via 1,000 stochastic simulations from May 1 to September 6, 2022. (a) As of September 6, 2022, the estimated number of imported cases arrived in Hong Kong based on OpenSky data and Aviation API database. The barplot shows the estimated number of imported cases from the top 10 regions during the study period, along with a 95% confidence interval; (b) probability that > 1 individual infected with mpox virus imported to Hong Kong SAR from the study countries and regions by the date indicated on the x-axis. The dotted blue vertical line indicates September 6, 2022, the date when the first mpox case was reported in Hong Kong SAR. The recent stops, including the US, Canada, and the Philippines, are shown in bold. Line colors correspond to the relative risk for importations as of that date, with red and blue denoting high and low probability, respectively.

(a)

(b)