Global Basic Reproduction Number of African Swine Fever in Wild Boar and a Mental Model to Explore the Disease Dynamics

Table 1

Reproduction number of ASF reported in different geographic regions and methods.

Host	Study area	Method	R0	Infectious period (days)	Source
Wild boar	Czech Republic	Doubling time	1.95	6	[19]
Wild boar	Belgium		1.65	6	[19]
Pig herds	Uganda	Nearest neighbor	3.24	—	[20]
		Doubling time	1.63	30	[20]
		SI-based (curve fitting, linear regression, and SI/N proportion)	(1.58, 1.90, 1.77)	—	[20]
Pig-to-pig	Georgia	SI (transmission experiment; within pen)	2.8	—	[21]
Pig-to-pig		SEIR (transmission experiment) (between pens)	1.4	—	[21]
Wild Boars	Russian	Doubling time (space–time clusters)	1.58	6	[22]
Domestic pig (between farms)		SI model	2–3	5	[23]
Domestic pig (within infected farm)		SI model	8–11	15	[23]
Domestic pig (within farm)	Ukraine	Doubling time	1.65	7	[24]
Domestic pig (between farms)		Doubling time	7.46	19	[24]
Pigs	Netherlands	Survival analysis (contact transmission experiment)	0.3	—	[18]
Pig within farm	Netherlands	Doubling time	4.92	4.6	[13]
	Malta	Doubling time	18 (6.90–46.9)	6.8	[13]
	Armenia	Doubling time	6.1 (0.6–14.5)	2–9	[25]
Wild boar	Italy	Doubling time	1.124	39	[26]
		Force of infection (λ)	1.165	—	[26]
		Proportion of Infected	1.17	—	[26]
		SIR model	1.139	5–7	[26]
Pig farm		Network (secondary cases)	1.86 (range 1.62 −2.82)	—	[27]
Pig farm	Vietnam	SI model	1.41–10.8	15–30	[28]
Pig herd		SEIR model	10 (1.1 to 30)	10	[29]
Wild boar	South Korea	Epidemic curves (simulation ‘who infected whom’)	2.10 (range: 0.06–10.24)	—	[30]
Wild boar		Doubling time	1.01–4.38	2–9	[31]
Wild boar		Doubling time	1.54 (range: 1.11–2.37)	7.5–23.5	[8]
Pig	China	SI model	0.6	—	[32]
ASF outbreaks		—	4.83–11.90	8–11	[33]
Wild boar	Poland	Network analysis	1.1–2.5	5	[34]

SEIR: susceptible exposed infectious removed; SI: susceptible infectious; and SIR: susceptible infectious removed.