Research Article

Global Basic Reproduction Number of African Swine Fever in Wild Boar and a Mental Model to Explore the Disease Dynamics

Table 1

Reproduction number of ASF reported in different geographic regions and methods.

HostStudy areaMethodR0Infectious period (days)Source

Wild boarCzech RepublicDoubling time1.956[19]
Wild boarBelgium1.656[19]

Pig herdsUgandaNearest neighbor3.24[20]
Doubling time1.6330[20]
SI-based (curve fitting, linear regression, and SI/N proportion)(1.58, 1.90, 1.77)[20]

Pig-to-pigGeorgiaSI (transmission experiment; within pen)2.8[21]
Pig-to-pigSEIR (transmission experiment) (between pens)1.4[21]

Wild BoarsRussianDoubling time (space–time clusters)1.586[22]
Domestic pig (between farms)SI model2–35[23]
Domestic pig (within infected farm)SI model8–1115[23]

Domestic pig (within farm)UkraineDoubling time1.657[24]
Domestic pig (between farms)Doubling time7.4619[24]

PigsNetherlandsSurvival analysis (contact transmission experiment)0.3[18]

Pig within farmNetherlandsDoubling time4.924.6[13]
MaltaDoubling time18 (6.90–46.9)6.8[13]
ArmeniaDoubling time6.1 (0.6–14.5)2–9[25]

Wild boarItalyDoubling time1.12439[26]
Force of infection (λ)1.165[26]
Proportion of Infected1.17[26]
SIR model1.1395–7[26]
Pig farmNetwork (secondary cases)1.86 (range 1.62 −2.82)[27]

Pig farmVietnamSI model1.41–10.815–30[28]
Pig herdSEIR model10 (1.1 to 30)10[29]

Wild boarSouth KoreaEpidemic curves (simulation ‘who infected whom’)2.10 (range: 0.06–10.24)[30]
Wild boarDoubling time1.01–4.382–9[31]
Wild boarDoubling time1.54 (range: 1.11–2.37)7.5–23.5[8]

PigChinaSI model0.6[32]
ASF outbreaks4.83–11.908–11[33]

Wild boarPolandNetwork analysis1.1–2.55[34]

SEIR: susceptible exposed infectious removed; SI: susceptible infectious; and SIR: susceptible infectious removed.