Research Article
Global Basic Reproduction Number of African Swine Fever in Wild Boar and a Mental Model to Explore the Disease Dynamics
Table 1
Reproduction number of ASF reported in different geographic regions and methods.
| Host | Study area | Method | R0 | Infectious period (days) | Source |
| Wild boar | Czech Republic | Doubling time | 1.95 | 6 | [19] | Wild boar | Belgium | 1.65 | 6 | [19] |
| Pig herds | Uganda | Nearest neighbor | 3.24 | — | [20] | Doubling time | 1.63 | 30 | [20] | SI-based (curve fitting, linear regression, and SI/N proportion) | (1.58, 1.90, 1.77) | — | [20] |
| Pig-to-pig | Georgia | SI (transmission experiment; within pen) | 2.8 | — | [21] | Pig-to-pig | SEIR (transmission experiment) (between pens) | 1.4 | — | [21] |
| Wild Boars | Russian | Doubling time (space–time clusters) | 1.58 | 6 | [22] | Domestic pig (between farms) | SI model | 2–3 | 5 | [23] | Domestic pig (within infected farm) | SI model | 8–11 | 15 | [23] |
| Domestic pig (within farm) | Ukraine | Doubling time | 1.65 | 7 | [24] | Domestic pig (between farms) | Doubling time | 7.46 | 19 | [24] |
| Pigs | Netherlands | Survival analysis (contact transmission experiment) | 0.3 | — | [18] |
| Pig within farm | Netherlands | Doubling time | 4.92 | 4.6 | [13] | Malta | Doubling time | 18 (6.90–46.9) | 6.8 | [13] | Armenia | Doubling time | 6.1 (0.6–14.5) | 2–9 | [25] |
| Wild boar | Italy | Doubling time | 1.124 | 39 | [26] | Force of infection (λ) | 1.165 | — | [26] | Proportion of Infected | 1.17 | — | [26] | SIR model | 1.139 | 5–7 | [26] | Pig farm | Network (secondary cases) | 1.86 (range 1.62 −2.82) | — | [27] |
| Pig farm | Vietnam | SI model | 1.41–10.8 | 15–30 | [28] | Pig herd | SEIR model | 10 (1.1 to 30) | 10 | [29] |
| Wild boar | South Korea | Epidemic curves (simulation ‘who infected whom’) | 2.10 (range: 0.06–10.24) | — | [30] | Wild boar | Doubling time | 1.01–4.38 | 2–9 | [31] | Wild boar | Doubling time | 1.54 (range: 1.11–2.37) | 7.5–23.5 | [8] |
| Pig | China | SI model | 0.6 | — | [32] | ASF outbreaks | — | 4.83–11.90 | 8–11 | [33] |
| Wild boar | Poland | Network analysis | 1.1–2.5 | 5 | [34] |
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SEIR: susceptible exposed infectious removed; SI: susceptible infectious; and SIR: susceptible infectious removed.
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