Asymmetric Effects of Weather-Integrated Human Brucellosis Forecasting System Using a New Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model

Table 4

Comparison of predictive performance between ARDL and NARDL.

Models	MAD	MAPE	RMSE	MER	RMSPE
ARDL	37.98	20.66	48.01	0.14	0.32
NARDL	33.34	18.49	40.36	0.13	0.28
DM	8.58	5.64	9.70	—	5.12
P	<0.001	<0.001	<0.001	—	<0.001

NARDL, nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model; ARDL, autoregressive distributed lag model; MAD, mean absolute deviation; MAPE, mean absolute percentage error; RMSE, root mean square error; MER, mean error rate; RMSPE, root mean square percentage error; DM, Diebold–Mariano.