The Effect of Partial and Temporary Vaccination on African Swine Fever Eradication Rates
Table 1
Summary statistics resulting from a set of simulated ASF vaccination scenarios.
No.
Vaccine type
Vaccination effort
Efficacy
Duration (days)
No. of sessions
Proportion of vaccine seropositive individuals
ASF persistence probability
Average eradication day
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
1
Theoretical
1.5
1
Lifetime
3
0.29
0.47
—
0.66
0.07
0
387
2
2.5
1
Lifetime
3
0.45
0.54
—
0.20
0
0
331
3
1.5
1
Lifetime
1
0.47
0.43
0.39
0.92
0.01
0
435
4
2.5
1
Lifetime
1
0.52
0.48
—
0.86
0
0
407
5
Highly effective short duration
1.5
0.75
90
3
0.12
0.09
0.09
0.96
0.72
0.68
906
6
2.5
0.75
90
3
0.19
0.14
0.14
0.89
0.49
0.47
756
7
1.5
0.75
90
1
0.31
0.21
0.23
0.97
0.49
0.44
784
8
2.5
0.75
90
1
0.40
0.30
0.23
0.92
0.20
0.08
539
9
Lowly effective long duration
1.5
0.25
365
3
0.07
0.09
0.09
0.98
0.81
0.80
975
10
2.5
0.25
365
3
0.12
0.15
0.14
0.93
0.53
0.48
809
11
1.5
0.25
365
1
0.12
0.10
0.09
1.00
0.76
0.70
934
12
2.5
0.25
365
1
0.19
0.16
0.13
0.96
0.47
0.42
775
13
Effectiveness–duration compromise
1.5
0.5
180
3
0.12
0.10
0.10
0.94
0.68
0.68
887
14
2.5
0.5
180
3
0.20
0.16
0.14
0.86
0.32
0.28
647
15
1.5
0.5
180
1
0.24
0.17
0.15
1.00
0.54
0.48
805
16
2.5
0.5
180
1
0.35
0.25
0.20
0.99
0.18
0.10
561
Vaccination effort is indicated as the number of vaccinations in each square kilometer each year. Vaccines with different efficacy and duration of protection were tested and compared under two possible vaccination designs (a single annual vaccination campaign vs. three campaigns). The figures highlighted in bold indicate the scenarios corresponding to an ASF persistence probability <0.1, whereas the ones highlighted in italic to a persistence probability >0.1 and <0.2.
