Statistical Downscaling for Rainfall Forecasts Using Modified Constructed Analog Method in Thailand

Table 5

Correlation between the observed rainfall and the predictors using AM and CAM taking into account the atmospheric predictors over Thailand regions including mean sea level pressure (MSLP), temperature (T850), moisture (Q850), and geopotential height (G850) at 850 hPa. Forecasts are for the months during 15 May to 15 October 2010 at the 30 TMD stations in Thailand.

Case	Station name	Rainfall forecast (mm) at 0000, 0600, 1200, and 1800 UTC								Rainfall (observed) (mm)
		G850		MSLP		Q850		T850
		AM	CAM	AM	CAM	AM	CAM	AM	CAM
1	CHR	1100.21	3451.80	1386.52	3993.94	1191.26	3626.82	1252.92	6646.73	1540.60
2	CHM	764.36	2149.88	1051.95	2610.86	896.22	2547.06	717.03	2421.42	973.00
3	LPG	640.02	1983.04	923.04	2428.05	823.71	2400.67	646.82	2287.80	725.50
4	PHR	800.46	2126.14	950.30	2603.08	913.97	2619.86	615.61	2407.90	900.50
5	NAN	788.54	2449.23	1042.01	2875.46	994.99	3027.15	779.32	2757.54	1297.30
6	UTD	915.98	2690.55	1297.06	3398.18	1068.90	3451.44	965.66	3147.13	1037.90
7	NKH	1066.28	3526.69	1366.87	3992.06	1424.60	4038.05	1246.67	4025.62	1409.00
8	LEI	749.12	2389.19	1110.56	3131.47	991.48	2927.04	868.20	2858.52	1160.40
9	SNK	1132.05	3690.38	1184.40	3861.29	1259.88	3969.75	1259.98	4054.12	1193.10
10	NPN	1888.09	5609.90	1495.63	5184.75	2071.19	5914.05	1920.34	6047.06	1710.70
11	TAK1	627.61	1912.34	723.37	2299.42	763.20	2180.71	604.57	2158.50	849.40
12	TAK2	1095.21	3532.98	997.92	3302.25	1405.34	3882.52	1019.35	3437.93	1081.00
13	TAK3	643.77	1885.03	622.83	2065.72	747.53	1881.22	571.52	2055.55	920.30
14	PCB	675.06	2217.09	930.55	2594.79	881.11	2754.29	821.04	2584.30	915.10
15	KHK	745.22	2499.90	1150.43	3110.14	957.19	3067.51	825.50	2976.56	996.70
16	NSW	711.83	2560.36	1038.69	2741.27	860.65	2477.84	894.80	2593.23	1167.70
17	RET	971.13	3009.09	903.08	3198.32	950.46	3482.88	1069.96	3475.87	996.60
18	UBT	1165.30	3893.10	1030.35	3593.99	1346.01	3902.88	1316.49	4068.83	1348.60
19	SPB	715.26	2229.01	845.54	2372.97	731.96	2213.57	767.56	2411.19	767.10
20	LBR	764.14	2384.77	728.29	2509.36	770.49	2797.93	772.85	2617.86	1114.80
21	PBR	1307.79	4313.54	1305.86	4235.60	1446.21	4107.28	1517.68	4697.70	1722.20
22	SUR	1021.78	3211.57	1044.88	3156.61	980.91	3250.48	1130.39	3438.41	1059.30
23	SAK	890.54	2768.69	777.12	2813.71	883.73	2934.10	1014.80	3045.63	1065.80
24	KCN	550.79	2055.37	917.29	2322.79	797.60	2084.03	731.27	2287.00	889.20
25	CHP	1015.86	3049.51	859.39	2978.16	1111.61	3369.49	1167.65	3620.65	739.70
26	SRT	661.61	2151.89	826.35	2426.40	852.59	2631.90	843.07	2729.10	733.60
27	NST	723.79	2080.71	891.57	2413.80	707.64	2676.97	788.80	2339.50	716.60
28	PHK1	1637.73	4639.42	1317.49	4287.73	1586.40	4564.23	1556.43	4699.62	1494.00
29	PHK2	1578.53	4620.26	1516.64	4573.52	1524.71	4458.55	1511.05	4755.84	1935.70
30	TRG	1292.68	3702.66	1351.59	3733.78	1789.55	9174.46	1293.73	4219.66	1124.60
Correlation		0.80	0.83	0.79	0.87	0.75	0.49	0.79	0.79
Average sum of rainfall (mm)		954.69	2959.47	1052.92	3160.32	1091.04	3413.82	1016.37	3362.23	1119.53