Statistical Downscaling for Rainfall Forecasts Using Modified Constructed Analog Method in Thailand

Table 7

Correlation between observed and average rainfall from all predictors by average AM, average CAM, and average MCAM. For forecast predictor during 15 May to 15 October 2010 at 30 stations in Thailand.

Case	Station name	Rainfall forecast (mm)			Rainfall (observed) (mm)	Percentage error (%)
		Average AM	Average CMA	Average MCAM		AM	CMA	MCAM
1	CHR	1232.73	4429.82	1526.92	1540.60	19.98	187.54	0.89
2	CHM	857.39	2432.30	836.75	973.00	11.88	149.98	14.00
3	LPG	758.40	2274.89	799.65	725.50	4.53	213.56	10.22
4	PHR	820.08	2439.24	871.34	900.50	8.93	170.88	3.24
5	NAN	901.21	2777.35	987.21	1297.30	30.53	114.09	23.90
6	UTD	1061.90	3171.83	1109.76	1037.90	2.31	205.60	6.92
7	NKH	1276.10	3895.61	1342.69	1409.00	9.43	176.48	4.71
8	LEI	929.84	2826.55	971.29	1160.40	19.87	143.58	16.30
9	SNK	1209.08	3893.89	1325.97	1193.10	1.34	226.37	11.14
10	NPN	1843.81	5688.94	1929.28	1710.70	7.78	232.55	12.78
11	TAK1	679.69	2137.74	748.90	849.40	19.98	151.68	11.83
12	TAK2	1129.46	3538.92	1198.98	1081.00	4.48	227.37	10.91
13	TAK3	646.41	1971.88	688.70	920.30	29.76	114.26	25.17
14	PCB	826.94	2537.62	883.23	915.10	9.63	177.31	3.48
15	KHK	919.59	2913.53	991.57	996.70	7.74	192.32	0.51
16	NSW	876.49	2593.17	874.80	1167.70	24.94	122.08	25.08
17	RET	973.66	3291.54	1107.79	996.60	2.30	230.28	11.16
18	UBT	1214.54	3864.70	1289.31	1348.60	9.94	186.57	4.40
19	SPB	765.08	2306.68	774.00	767.10	0.26	200.70	0.90
20	LBR	758.94	2577.48	876.14	1114.80	31.92	131.21	21.41
21	PBR	1394.38	4338.53	1475.14	1722.20	19.03	151.92	14.35
22	SUR	1044.49	3264.27	1099.95	1059.30	1.40	208.15	3.84
23	SAK	891.55	2890.53	965.80	1065.80	16.35	171.21	9.38
24	KCN	749.24	2187.30	713.98	889.20	15.74	145.99	19.71
25	CHP	1038.63	3254.45	1065.71	739.70	40.41	339.97	44.07
26	SRT	795.90	2484.82	829.68	733.60	8.49	238.72	13.10
27	NST	777.95	2377.75	783.45	716.60	8.56	231.81	9.33
28	PHK1	1524.51	4547.75	1529.77	1494.00	2.04	204.40	2.39
29	PHK2	1532.73	4602.04	1508.51	1935.70	20.82	137.75	22.07
30	TRG	1431.89	5207.64	1716.71	1124.60	27.32	363.07	52.65
Correlation		0.82	0.79	0.80
		0.67	0.61	0.63
Average sum of rainfall (mm)		1028.75	3223.96	1094.10	1119.53
RMSE		202.00	2230.85	202.25
MAPE						13.92%	191.58%	13.66%