Change-Point Analysis: An Effective Technique for Detecting Abrupt Change in the Homicide Trends in a Democratic South Africa

Table 1

Murder statistics in South Africa per province over a ten-year period.

Province	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	Ave
KwaZulu-Natal	4891	4984	4686	4737	4214	3740	3418	3623	3616	3810	3929	4149.82
Mpumalanga	877	858	831	895	864	717	726	693	806	831	859	814.27
Northern Cape	390	412	418	411	375	339	336	412	437	413	372	392.27
Limpopo	686	745	690	745	761	663	734	701	728	777	898	738.91
North West	750	822	824	853	741	743	799	867	824	853	907	816.64
Gauteng	3607	3863	3743	3946	3429	3246	2995	2988	3325	3671	3842	3514.09
Eastern Cape	3653	3602	3510	3253	3212	3179	3269	3335	3441	3321	3649	3402.18
Free State	860	944	863	901	900	958	954	1019	942	943	993	934.27
Western Cape	2741	2876	2835	2343	2271	2308	2293	2575	2904	3186	3224	2686.91
Ave	2046.00	2111.20	2040.70	2009.20	1877.60	1790.30	1753.50	1822.50	1903.60	1981.90	2068.80