Research on PSO-ARMA-SVR Short-Term Electricity Consumption Forecast Based on the Particle Swarm Algorithm

Table 2

Load forecasting results of the PSO-ARMA-SVR combined model.

Time	Actual weekly load (kWh)	ARMA predictive model		SVR predictive model	PSO-ARMA-SVR combined forecasting model
		ARMA predictive value (kWh)	Generated residual values (kWh)	Residual correction value (kWh)	Combined forecast (kWh)	Relative error percentage
1	10311.97	9775.45	-536.52	-590.44	10365.89	0.52%
2	14413.53	18795.08	4381.55	4098.29	14696.79	1.97%
3	10588.25	7710.82	-2877.43	-2679.85	10390.68	1.87%
4	12814.41	13623.62	809.21	477.94	13145.67	2.59%
5	12142.79	12155.78	12.99	175.51	11980.27	1.34%
6	14913.20	16061.39	1148.19	1208.36	14853.04	0.40%
7	15691.73	16630.35	938.62	745.64	15884.71	1.23%
8	17136.46	17815.82	679.36	664.36	17151.45	0.09%
9	17461.99	16473.99	-988.00	-1131.84	17605.82	0.82%
10	14380.14	12203.63	-2176.51	-2150.11	14353.74	0.18%
11	11806.71	7565.42	-4241.29	-3983.82	11548.42	2.19%
12	11219.57	10607.95	-611.62	-362.13	10970.08	2.22%
13	13592.16	14522.68	930.52	796.68	13726.00	0.98%
14	14434.91	15302.29	867.38	729.56	14572.74	0.95%
15	14059.93	13014.50	-1045.43	-1035.21	14049.71	0.07%
16	13227.41	13906.55	679.14	660.36	13246.19	0.14%
17	10718.82	9663.97	-1054.85	-1429.69	11093.67	3.50%
18	5818.27	3018.05	-2800.22	-2768.48	5786.61	0.54%
19	6151.67	6240.11	88.44	96.57	6143.54	0.13%
20	5956.74	6811.51	854.77	160.82	6050.63	1.58%
21	5859.83	5140.24	-719.59	-751.24	5891.48	0.54%
22	4732.72	4440.30	-292.42	-290.90	4731.20	0.03%
23	5868.39	6933.94	1065.56	1106.77	5827.17	0.70%
24	5754.71	7310.60	1555.89	983.47	5851.92	1.69%
25	5747.34	6525.16	777.82	689.01	5836.07	1.54%
26	5164.24	5158.25	-6.01	-135.80	5294.03	2.51%
27	6081.69	7066.28	984.59	597.73	6168.53	1.43%
28	5793.72	6227.32	433.60	153.39	5773.93	0.34%