Statistical Analysis for the Detection of Change Points and the Evaluation of Monthly Mean Temperature Trends of the Moulouya Basin (Morocco)
Table 5
Results of the 3 change point detection methods applied to monthly mean temperature data, July–December, between 1980 and 2020 in the Moulouya watershed.
July
August
September
October
November
December
value
Significance
Date
value
Significance
Date
value
Significance
Date
value
Significance
Date
value
Significance
Date
value
Significance
Date
Pettitt’s test
S1
≤0.001
2004
≤0.01
2002
0.023
2009
≤0.01
2000
0.712
N
—
0.483
N
—
S2
≤0.001
2002
≤0.01
1999
0.069
—
—
0.028
2003
0.946
N
—
0.866
N
—
S3
≤0.001
2004
≤0.01
2003
0.010
2009
≤0.01
2003
0.549
N
—
0.448
N
—
S4
≤0.001
2002
≤0.01
2003
≤0.01
2005
0.015
2004
0.858
N
—
0.299
N
—
S5
≤0.001
2005
≤0.01
2009
≤0.01
2009
0.145
N
—
0.217
N
—
0.021
2010
S6
≤0.01
1997
≤0.01
1998
0.495
—
—
≤0.01
2000
0.185
N
—
0.044
2008
S7
0.091
N
—
0.437
N
—
≤0.01
1992
0.023
2000
0.056
N
—
0.246
N
—
S8
≤0.001
2002
≤0.01
2002
0.040
2009
≤0.01
2000
0.793
N
—
0.561
N
—
S9
≤0.001
2003
≤0.01
2002
0.023
2009
0.101
N
—
0.464
N
—
0.708
N
—
Buishand’s range test
S1
≤0.001
2004
≤0.001
2002
0.037
2006
≤0.01
2000
0.51
N
—
0.137
N
—
S2
≤0.001
2002
≤0.01
1998
0.079
N
—
0.019
2003
0.9
N
—
0.702
N
—
S3
≤0.001
2004
≤0.001
2003
0.049
2003
0.010
2003
0.83
N
—
0.711
N
—
S4
≤0.001
2005
≤0.001
2003
≤0.01
2005
0.019
2004
0.9
N
—
0.136
N
—
S5
≤0.001
2005
≤0.001
2009
0.020
2009
0.097
N
—
0.25
N
—
0.043
2010
S6
≤0.01
1997
≤0.01
1998
0.897
N
—
≤0.01
2000
0.22
N
—
0.041
2008
S7
0.588
N
—
0.306
N
—
0.032
1992
0.029
2000
0.04
###
0.619
N
—
S8
≤0.01
2002
≤0.001
2009
0.040
2009
≤0.01
2000
0.91
N
—
0.527
N
—
S9
≤0.001
2003
≤0.001
1998
0.087
N
—
0.106
N
—
0.12
N
—
0.054
N
—
von Neumann ratio test
S1
≤0.001
≤0.001
≤0.001
0.136
N
0.507
N
≤0.01
S2
≤0.001
≤0.01
≤0.01
0.399
N
0.760
N
0.456
N
S3
≤0.01
≤0.01
≤0.001
≤0.01
0.989
N
0.051
N
S4
≤0.001
≤0.001
≤0.001
0.225
N
0.978
N
≤0.01
S5
≤0.001
≤0.001
≤0.01
0.647
N
0.480
N
0.435
N
S6
0.012
≤0.01
0.634
N
0.119
N
0.199
N
0.038
S7
≤0.01
0.011
≤0.01
0.739
N
0.658
N
0.243
N
S8
≤0.01
≤0.001
≤0.001
0.466
N
0.291
N
0.043
S9
0.011
0.042
≤0.001
0.645
N
0.025
≤0.001
N, no significant change point. Significant point of change at 0.1 level. Significant point of change at 0.05 level. Significant change point at 0.01 threshold.