A Crude Oil Spot Price Forecasting Method Incorporating Quadratic Decomposition and Residual Forecasting

Table 7

Comparison of forecasting performance of different models.

Prediction horizon	Model	Error indicator
		MAE	MSE		MAPE
Brent	Model 1	0.75640808	7.235322874	0.979393405	1.499175621
	Model 2	3.084721757	15.02700232	0.957202277	4.834750621
	Model 3	2.552414749	11.26246556	0.967923883	4.14440152
	Model 4	4.327111644	32.68631888	0.906907579	6.858666476
	Model 5	7.540650463	54.22654482	0.674676565	5.111353319
	Model 6	3.048104627	16.97328049	0.951659171	4.119864135
	Model 7	2.176896112	7.885804418	0.977540799	3.496302775
	Model 8	0.935671962	0.875608146	0.997506377	1.541913286
	Model 9	0.923817867	0.853850097	0.997568188	1.522745834
	Model 10	0.277028123	0.109454043	0.999688269	0.457206033
	Model 11	0.266495464	0.071089735	0.999797533	0.439362401
	Model 12	0.266489663	0.071086592	0.999797542	0.439354093
	Model 13	0.253209173	0.065713872	0.999812843	0.416608602
WTI	Model 1	1.727588906	23.19526068	0.933607765	3.549475148
	Model 2	2.751387662	14.0782922	0.959703437	4.888496881
	Model 3	2.607948718	15.06218041	0.956887235	4.723907996
	Model 4	4.602267573	36.04344152	0.896832172	8.305570286
	Model 5	6.065383929	41.74257749	0.794649857	4.10834166
	Model 6	3.094695824	20.77134049	0.940545797	5.078767711
	Model 7	1.857406191	5.993485395	0.982844733	3.407799122
	Model 8	1.08142759	1.453631162	0.995814806	1.961160398
	Model 9	0.990683307	1.003060623	0.997128921	1.791215044
	Model 10	0.358825088	0.134193663	0.999615895	0.647166427
	Model 11	0.112444806	0.012667775	0.999963741	0.203303061
	Model 12	0.112436505	0.012665842	0.999963746	0.20328829
	Model 13	0.105476793	0.012019929	0.999964732	0.19782242

Bold values indicate that model 13 is the best experimental result among the 13 compared models.