Fitting Time Series Models to Fisheries Data to Ascertain Age

Figure 5

Residual plot of the six UCMs. Dark blue indicates one standard error, while light blue indicates two standard errors. Note: models (d, f) are displayed on a different y-scale than the other models to highlight the modeling of the MIA at early ages; also, the x-scale indicates months, i.e., 13 = January, 19 = July, etc. (a) Model 1 uses a stochastic level, slope, cycle, and season. (b) Model 2 uses a stochastic level and slope, no cycle, and stochastic season. (c) Model 3 uses a stochastic level, fixed slope, and stochastic cycle and season. (d) Model 4 uses a stochastic level, no slope, and stochastic cycle and season. (e) Model 5 uses a stochastic level, fixed slope, no cycle, and stochastic season. (f) Model 6 uses a stochastic level, no slope or cycle, and stochastic season.

(a)

(b)

(c)

(d)

(e)

(f)